Unpacking the Arguments Over Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Event

The Olympics. The World Cup. The US presidential election.

A Bitcoin halving event.

Each draws the world’s attention every four years. Each generates intense debate.

For now, a BTC halving event might bring in a slightly smaller contingent than a US presidential election or the Olympics. However, it’s still a momentous occasion. The debate over how the latest halving, which is expected Friday, will impact the price of BTC has raged on for months.

Some analysts have speculated the halving could send the price of BTC skyrocketing. Others have argued the halving was priced in during BTC’s surge in price over the past year-plus. With the halving looming, let’s review what it entails and take a closer look at the debate.

What is a Bitcoin Halving Event?

A halving is when BTC’s underlying blockchain cuts in half the availability of new rewards. It occurs when miners add 210,000 blocks to the network–usually every four years–and is meant to limit the amount of BTC supply in the market, keeping inflation down but cutting into profit margins for miners.

As part of the latest halving, the block reward–the monetary incentive miners receive for validating transactions on the blockchain– will drop to 3.125 BTC, down from 6.25 BTC during the previous halving event in 2020 and from 12.5 BTC in 2016.

Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym for the person or group who founded Bitcoin in 2009, capped the total BTC that will be produced at 21 million. And miners haven’t reached that threshold yet. Analysts estimate that there was roughly 19.68 million BTC circulating in the market as of April. As a result, halving events will continue to occur every four years until 2140.

The Bull Case for the Halving

Some BTC bulls predict the price of BTC will hit $150K by the end of 2024 following the latest halving event. After all, BTC has surged each time the rate of new supply has diminished.

Consider that in 2012, the price of BTC jumped 90x from the day of the halving to the top of the cycle. In 2016, it jumped 30x from the day of the halving to the top. And in 2020, it jumped from 8x from the day of the halving to its peak.

BTC bulls insist that limiting the supply of BTC has helped it retain its value over time and arguably made it more resistant to inflationary pressures faced by fiat currencies. Now, increasing participation from retail and institutional actors is driving up the price because of simple supply-and-demand economics. As with precious metals such as gold or silver, limiting new supply makes BTC more valuable.

“Everything went up so fast already this year, there’s just a lot of activity, a lot of adoption, new regulation, ETFs, the halving, miners needing to get out,” Gemini COO Marshall Beard told CNBC.

“You’re going to see violent moves up and down until that new all-time high, which I think will be $150,000,” Beard added. “It probably happens this year. I think it moves so fast ... and I think that momentum, the supply shock, it moves crazy quickly.”

Claire Ching, Head of Institutional at Gemini, said the hype about the upcoming halving is likely outpacing the impact but acknowledged she’s still bullish overall.

“I'm increasingly in the camp that it's more narrative this time around,” she said. “Daily supply will be halved, but as a percentage of average daily volume, it's an insignificant amount. The price of BTC will remain skewed on the demand side of the equation, with ETFs and the institutionalization of bitcoin being a big driver of that.”

The Bear Case for the Halving

On the flip side, there are no guarantees a halving will push BTC’s price up and to the right. Over the past year, the price of BTC has surged more than 100%, in part because of anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a massive inflow of capital into spot BTC ETFs.

Predicting BTC price swings is inherently difficult, but some analysts maintain BTC will face significant pressures post-halving because it will make mining less profitable.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said in a note that the halving could lead to a $5B selloff from miners post-halving. And he's since sold out of his tech and crypto positions, arguing both are at a crucial tipping point because of delayed interest rate cuts, inflation, and high bond yields.

“The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months — as it has done following past halvings,” Thielen said.

Thielen took his argument a step further, saying BTC liquidations could amount to roughly $100M bitcoin per day when miners sell their recent acquisitions post-halving, leading to a supply-and-demand imbalance.

Said Thielen: “Other miners will likely follow a similar strategy to liquidate part of their inventory gradually.”

In anticipation of the halving, some mining companies have built reserve funds to combat the drop in profitability. But others that have struggled to break even in the current environment will likely face additional strain in the coming months.

The price of BTC had dipped more than 2% this week as of Friday at 2 pm ET, hovering above $64K.

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